What has Ukraine achieved in the Kursk offensive operation?

The full article was published by The Moscow Times

In August 2024, Ukraine launched a military offensive operation in Russia’s Kursk region. As of mid-October, Ukraine controls a larger area of Russian territory than Russian forces managed to capture in the Donetsk region during their summer offensive campaign. The preliminary interim results of the operation show that Russia has been forced to revise its plans, including those for further offensive operations. This also concerns the redeployment of certain units from other sections of the front, as well as the use of reserves. Overall, the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region has achieved several significant objectives.

First and foremost, it became an asymmetric response to the positional war of attrition that Russia is trying to impose on its own terms in order to exhaust Ukraine’s forces and resources. Given Russia’s overwhelming superiority in artillery, ammunition, aviation, armored vehicles, and manpower — and thus its ability to apply pressure along the entire front line — Ukraine has no alternative but to wage a non-linear war against a stronger enemy. That is why the operation in the Kursk region is an attempt by the Ukrainian command to break the game imposed by Russia, flip the chessboard, and strike territories and positions where the enemy does not expect it. This asymmetry has manifested itself not only in strategy and tactics, but also directly on the battlefield.

The Kursk operation, with its maneuverability and the element of surprise for the enemy, resembles the Kharkiv operation carried out in 2022, which was led by the current Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi. Kyiv continues to communicate Ukraine’s objectives in the Kursk region quite cautiously. However, it can already be said that transferring hostilities onto Russian territory has, at the very least, proven justified from an operational and tactical standpoint.

In particular, this has neutralized the threat to Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv from the military grouping that had been stationed in the Sudzha district. This was one of the key objectives of the Ukrainian offensive, effectively allowing Ukraine to avoid a Russian “Sumy operation.” In addition, the appearance of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region disrupted Russian logistics along the entire northern border: rapid movement along the front line via lateral supply roads has become impossible, as railways and major highways are now under Ukrainian control. This means that future force buildups in the Sudzha area are currently impossible, and other logistics along the border have also been degraded. The surprise of the Ukrainian operation also made it possible to achieve another objective that is sensitive for the Russian authorities — the issue of prisoners of war. The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to capture more than 600 Russian servicemen, including conscripts, which has simplified and accelerated the prisoner exchange process that has been stalled by Russia.

Photo: REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi

Author: Dmytro Zhmaylo, military expert and Executive Director of the UCBP