Missile Changes Target: Incidents of Ammunition Falling on Their Own Territory Increase in Russia

Since 2023, the aggressor state has begun using unguided aerial bombs such as FAB-250/FAB-500, as well as Kh-101 and Kh-35 missiles, to carry out air attacks on Ukrainian cities. However, for a number of reasons—including lack of professionalism, fatigue of air and ground crews along the frontline, and inadequate training—munitions intended to destroy ground targets in Ukraine often fail to reach their destination, literally falling on the heads of Russians themselves.

Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defense and local officials have reported around 10 cases of so-called “self-drops” of munitions on Russian territory. Border regions suffer most frequently from these incidents, as a large share of Russian combat sorties originate there, threatening Ukrainian settlements with aerial bombs and missiles.

Analyzing open-source information, one can trace a correlation between the execution of air combat missions by the Russian Armed Forces and reports of the discovery of “explosive objects.” There are also frequent cases of munitions being dropped directly onto residential areas. This occurred, for example, on April 20, 2023, in Belgorod, when an aerial bomb fell near an apartment building, and on February 18, 2024, in the village of Soloti in Russia’s Belgorod region. As the Russian outlet ASTRA reported, the fall of a FAB-250 bomb led to the evacuation of 150 local residents. Another striking example of Russian incompetence occurred in Russia’s Voronezh region: on January 2, 2024, in the village of Petropavlivka, at least four people were injured as a result of a Kh-101 missile falling from an aircraft. Initially, Russian Telegram channels and pro-government media blamed Ukraine, but the local governor later admitted the missile was Russian and announced a plan to rebuild nine houses.

The most recent recorded case of a “self-drop” onto Russian territory occurred on March 2, 2024, when a Kh-35 anti-ship missile landed in a field near the settlement of Novoshcherbinovskaya in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. The incident was confirmed by Ukrainian Telegram channels and Russian local media. Kremlin propaganda outlets cited a missile malfunction as the cause, which may indicate improper storage and preparation of the weapon.

Observing the growing number of cases in which Russian Armed Forces munitions are dropped on their own territory—or, as the Russian Ministry of Defense claims, “abnormal releases of aerial munitions”—one can conclude that there is “fatigue among Russian air and ground crews along the frontline.” This, in particular, is reported by UK intelligence. Notably, most such launches are carried out by Tu-95 and Tu-160 heavy bombers, which are based at airfields in Russia’s Astrakhan region—essentially on the Caspian Sea coast. Clearly, this choice of basing location is not accidental and can be explained by a desire to minimize the consequences of accidental munition drops, as in such cases they would fall into the sea.