The approach of war in Dagestan could exacerbate internal conflicts in the problematic region for Russia

The full article is published on The Moscow times

On November 6, a Ukrainian kamikaze drone (probably an A-22 Flying Fox) hit Russian warships in the Caspian Sea for the first time. According to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, at least two targets were damaged. These are likely missile patrol ships Tatarstan and Dagestan moored at the Russian naval base in the city of Kaspiysk, Dagestan.

The distance from Kaspiysk to the state border of Ukraine is about 1500 kilometers.

In September 2024, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian drones are capable of hitting enemy targets at a distance of up to 1800 km, but the events of November 6 (given the drone’s flight to the Caspian Sea) clearly came as a surprise to Russian security forces.

Despite the calls of the head of Dagestan not to post photos and videos of the incident, Dagestan and all-Russian channels are full of videos of the drone’s flight and hit from different angles.

The incident is also being hotly discussed on local social media. During the attempt to shoot down the drone, the Russian military spared no bullets, and as a result, some of them hit the homes of the Caspian people. Bloggers complain that despite the allocation of 550 million state funds for the Safe City system, neither the Emergency Situations Ministry’s warning system nor the civil defense system worked. The mayor of Kaspiysk announced the introduction of forced restrictions: between 1.00 and 8.00, street lighting will be turned off “to minimize the presence of people on the streets at night.”

In general, Dagestan is one of the most problematic regions in Russia and for the Kremlin authorities.

In June 2023, the republic’s Prime Minister stated that due to “the threat of actions from Ukrainian special services and nationalists, anti-terrorist security measures will be strengthened in the republic.” However, this is a fairly standard attempt to explain internal problems and, accordingly, the mood of the local population, which is also used by the central Russian authorities.

Photo: screenshot

Author: Oksana Kuzan, the head of the analytical department of the USCC

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